Mayank Patel
Apr 7, 2025
4 min read
Last updated Apr 7, 2025
Retail tech has long chased the illusion of certainty—the perfect forecast, the ideal SKU count, the exact demand curve.
But as customer behavior fragments, channels multiply, and disruptions become the norm rather than the exception, that approach is not only outdated—it’s dangerous.
The future of retail doesn’t lie in deterministic models. It lies in probabilistic thinking: a mindset and methodology where confidence intervals, scenario planning, and real-time adjustments take center stage.
Retail forecasting systems of the past were designed for a world that no longer exists. They operated on deterministic models, often built in spreadsheets or ERP systems, that delivered a single number as the answer.
A store planner or inventory manager would ask: “How many units of SKU 827 should we have by next month?” And the system would return: “3,400 units.” Precise. Confident. Clean.
But in reality? That number was almost always wrong.
Retail is messy. Promotions run longer than planned, or underperform entirely. A local snowstorm can wipe out foot traffic. A TikTok creator can make an obscure product go viral overnight. A supply chain delay can push delivery windows just enough to make the forecast irrelevant.
None of this shows up in deterministic models.
Worse, that single forecast number creates a false sense of control. Teams plan based on “the number,” build schedules, budgets, and logistics around it—and then scramble when reality diverges. The result?
This illusion of accuracy is dangerous. Because when you build models that output exact numbers—without any visibility into variance or confidence—it subtly encourages overconfidence in plans that are built on shaky ground.
In truth, real-world demand isn’t a point—it’s a probability curve. It lives in ranges, shaped by uncertainty, context, and randomness.
To build smarter inventory systems, retailers must stop pretending that the world is stable and start modeling it as it actually is: dynamic, volatile, and full of uncertainty that can be planned for, if not entirely eliminated.
Also Read: Do Shoppers Love or Fear Hyper-Personalization?
Where deterministic forecasting tries to predict the future, probabilistic forecasting embraces uncertainty as part of the equation. It doesn’t give a single number with false confidence—it provides a distribution of likely outcomes, paired with a level of certainty.
Instead of saying, “We’ll sell 3,400 units,” a probabilistic system might say, “There’s a 70% chance we’ll sell between 3,200 and 3,600 units, and a 90% chance it’ll fall between 3,000 and 3,800.”
You don’t just get a number—you get context, risk bounds, and a better feel for how to act under ambiguity. This shift may seem subtle, even academic. But in practice, it unlocks an entirely new kind of decision-making—one that’s not built on overconfidence, but on adaptive intelligence.
With probabilistic models, inventory allocation becomes less of a guessing game.
If your system tells you there's a 90% chance of selling at least 3,000 units, you might plan to hold 3,100 in high-priority locations and retain a reserve of 500 elsewhere. That’s strategic buffering, not blind overstocking.
Retailers can also differentiate by category. Fast-moving consumer goods with low margins might warrant tighter ranges and higher confidence thresholds, while seasonal or luxury items can afford broader risk windows.
Traditional systems rely on rigid reorder points. But probabilistic forecasts allow replenishment to be timed based on confidence intervals and real-time sales velocity.
If sales spike unexpectedly and your confidence interval shifts, you can replenish dynamically—avoiding both early stockouts and late overstocking.
This is especially powerful in omnichannel environments, where inventory needs to move fluidly between physical stores, fulfillment centers, and dark stores.
Probabilistic models help allocate just enough—not too much—to each node based on local demand volatility.
Promotions often distort demand—sometimes lifting it, sometimes cannibalizing future sales, sometimes doing nothing at all.
Probabilistic forecasting allows you to test multiple promotional scenarios against a distribution of possible outcomes.
Want to know what happens if a flash sale lifts demand by 25% instead of 15%? Or if a competitor launches a counter-campaign? Instead of scrambling after the fact, you can model these what-ifs ahead of time and plan with agility.
This makes budgeting and marketing more resilient. Teams aren’t stuck reacting to the “wrong forecast”—they’re prepared with a range of possible responses, optimized around probability, not perfection.
Modern probabilistic forecasting is powered by a new wave of tools:
These systems thrive when connected to real-time inputs: POS transactions, web traffic, social sentiment, weather forecasts, supply chain signals, and even geo-specific footfall data.
Over the past five years, retail has faced more shocks than in the previous two decades combined.
Pandemic-driven supply chain failures, hyperlocal consumer behavior, social media-driven microtrends, and channel cannibalization are making demand patterns inherently volatile.
Retailers that continue to think in absolutes are setting themselves up to fail in a relative world.
Probabilistic systems, on the other hand, are anti-fragile—they get stronger by embracing variability. They allow retailers to:
Retail tech leaders who embrace probability don’t just forecast better—they plan smarter, adapt faster, and build organizations that thrive in ambiguity. In a world where nothing is certain, thinking probabilistically might be the most certain path to success.
How DTC Brands Can Win Prime Day 2025 Without Selling on Amazon
What started as a site-specifi c event has become a retail-wide catalyst. Amazon’s Prime Day has grown into a mid-July fi xture that moves the entire ecommerce market. In 2022, Prime members bought over 300 million items and saved $1.7 billion. By 2023, Amazon hit $12.9 billion in sales—and U.S. retailers outside Amazon pulled in another $12.7 billion. The trend only accelerated in 2024, with off-Amazon online sales reaching $14.2 billion, up 11% year over year.
The takeaway: consumer intent spikes across the board, not just on Amazon. Shoppers are primed (literally) for discounts, and they’re actively looking beyond Amazon’s ecosystem.
For DTC and ecommerce brands that sell independently, Prime Day 2025 is a strategic window. You don’t need to be on Amazon to benefi t. You just need to align with the demand curve. The guide below breaks down how off-Amazon brands can tap into Prime Day’s momentum using parallel promos, targeted marketing, and smart execution.
One of the most effective ways to ride the Prime Day wave without being on Amazon is to run your own simultaneous sales event on your website. By offering deals directly, you cater to deal-hungry consumers who are primed (pun intended) to shop—while keeping the sales in-house.
DTC brands have increasingly embraced this approach. For example, Brooklinen held a “surprise” sitewide sale during Prime Day 2022, offering 15% off on its own website (matching its Amazon discount). “We know there is demand from our customers to shop during this time period. We want to make it convenient for them by keeping the sale consistent across our site as well as Amazon,” explained Brooklinen’s VP of marketing. By 2024, DTC names from Brooklinen to Casper were routinely running Prime Day promos, essentially treating it like a mid-year Black Friday.
Some brands even brand their parallel sales as their own mini-holiday. A great example is NuGo Nutrition, which in 2023 launched a “Better Than Prime Day” sale before Amazon’s event. Their email campaign boldly declared, “Step aside, Prime Day… Who needs Prime Day when you can score even better savings right now by ordering directly from our website?” Lightning deals started two days before Prime Day with limited promo codes (only 50 per deal) to create urgency. Similarly, candy brand Licorice ran a “Licorice Prime Time” sale four days before Prime Day, using early-bird emails to redirect spending to its own site.
Pro tip: Consider framing your sale as a “Black Friday in July.” Many retailers now run week-long promotions around Prime Day. Experts suggest extending your sale 2–3 days before and after the event to catch shoppers in the buying mood early and late.
ALSO READ: Simplify Your Store Homepage to Convert More Visitors
Prime Day doesn’t just drive sales on Amazon—it drives searches, clicks, and general web traffic as consumers scour the internet for deals. In 2023, retailers outside Amazon saw a 52% YoY increase in clicks, with volumes ramping up two days before the event. Shoppers were actively comparing deals across platforms.
Smart DTC brands capitalize on this with targeted advertising:
ALSO READ: Site Search Optimization: Your Hidden Conversion Lever
Keep in mind: if your product is also available on Amazon, shoppers will price-check. Emphasize what Amazon can’t offer—bundles, exclusives, loyalty perks, and direct perks.
ALSO READ: Conversion Rate Dropped but Traffic Is Steady? Here's Why
Facing Amazon’s marketing juggernaut, DTC brands are fi nding an edge by tapping infl uencers and creators to generate buzz. Infl uencers can create their own gravitational pull, directing shoppers toward your brand even as Amazon dominates the feeds.
A standout example is MrBeast’s Feastables. This creator-led brand isn’t reliant on Amazon; it leveraged its founder’s massive YouTube reach to generate excitement. When Feastables launched in 2022, it offered a Willy Wonka-style sweepstakes and generated $10M+ in sales in just a few months. No Amazon necessary. This shows that a strong creator campaign can match—or beat—Prime Day-level sales.
ALSO READ: Rethink Your Retail Strategy for Gen Z
Tactics for Prime Day 2025:
ALSO READ: Do Shoppers Love or Fear Hyper-Personalization?
During Prime Day, inboxes and phones light up with Amazon’s promotions—so your messages need to stand out.
Many DTC brands explicitly reference Prime Day in subject lines and creatives. Brands like Caraway sent multiple countdown emails with urgency-driven messaging (e.g., “Final hours: Prime Day—fi nal warning”). You can do the same—even if you’re not on Amazon—by tying your promo timeline to Prime Day (“Ends when Prime Day ends!”).
Others opt for subtlety, teasing the savings in the subject line but only connecting it to Prime Day inside the email. Both approaches work, as long as you drive urgency. NuGo’s “Better Than Prime” email used bold headlines and “today-only” lightning deals, plus capped promo codes to motivate action.
ALSO READ: The UX Fix That Cuts Cart Abandonment
Don’t hesitate to send multiple emails:
Just vary the subject lines to avoid hurting open rates with non-openers.
SMS is a Prime Day powerhouse. With 98% open rates and real-time delivery, it’s perfect for:
Segment your list, too. If someone browsed but didn’t buy in the past two weeks, send them a personalized Prime Day code to close the loop.
ALSO READ: Micro-Moments and Funnel CRO: Turning Intent Into Action
In a sea of one-off discounts, product bundles and exclusive drops can set you apart and increase order value.
DTC brands often use Prime Day to clear inventory or promote higher-ticket packages. During Prime Day 2024, Caraway offered 20% off select bundles on its site while saving its best individual-item discounts for Amazon. If you're off Amazon, you can bundle creatively to provide more value and convenience—e.g., “Prime Day Kitchen Bundle—get our blender and toaster together for 30% off.”
Create time-sensitive excitement with new products or limited editions. A DTC streetwear brand might drop a Prime Day-exclusive sneaker colorway only available for 48 hours. Scarcity plus novelty = demand.
Reward customers with what Amazon can’t. Offer:
ALSO READ: Zero-Click PDPs: A New Conversion Strategy
Looking back at Prime Days 2022–2024, successful off-Amazon brands had a few things in common:
ALSO READ: CDP vs CRM vs DMP: Which Helps Build a Unifi ed Customer View?
Prime Day 2025 is poised to be the biggest yet. And while Amazon will dominate headlines, DTC and off-Amazon brands can thrive in its glow—if you plan ahead, act boldly, and meet the moment.
Mayank Patel
Jun 5, 20254 min read
Shopify’s 2025 Editions vs. LinearCommerce: Are the Gaps Closed?
Shopify’s Winter 2025 “Boring” Edition and anticipated Summer 2025 “Horizons” Edition rolled out over 150 new features each, aiming to shore up long-standing platform weaknesses.
From speed boosts to a brand-new “Horizon” theme system with AI, Shopify’s recent updates focus on making the platform faster, more flexible, and more capable out-of-the-box.
But how far do these improvements go toward fixing Shopify’s historical pain points in performance, customization, developer flexibility, SEO, cost, and app dependency?
Below, we break down Shopify’s latest changes, evaluate what problems they solve (or don’t), and compare them head-to-head with LinearCommerce’s stack to see where LinearCommerce still holds an edge for modern DTC brands.
Also Read: Why Retail Tech Needs to Think in Probability, Not Certainty
Released in Dec 2024, focused on performance and polish over flash.
It delivered 50% faster cart loading and 59% faster payment button loads, new tools like Checkout Blocks (no-code customizations for thank-you pages), and extended many features to work in more places (e.g. checkout customizations now apply to draft orders too).
Shopify also introduced its AI assistant Sidekick globally, improved native product bundling (now usable in POS), and gave customer accounts a boost (subscriptions and loyalty info are now accessible in the login area).
Dozens of “quality of life” updates landed: offline POS payments, more automation in Shopify Flow, smarter analytics, and new product taxonomy tools like collection rules by product attributes and custom meta fields for categories.
As one summary put it, Winter ’25 was “not about brand new tools – it’s about making everything you already use work better, faster, and smarter.”
Also Read: How Site Search Optimization Saves Lost DTC Sales?
Launched May 2025, this update’s star is “Horizon,” Shopify’s new theme foundation focused on design freedom and AI.
Horizon brings 10 new pre-built themes and a modernized front-end that supports nested theme blocks for total layout flexibility. Merchants can now drag-and-drop sections anywhere and even use AI to generate custom theme sections by describing what they want (e.g. “a 3D tilt effect image gallery”).
The Online Store Editor got a major upgrade too – direct on-page text editing, reusable sections, conditional visibility settings, and an AI block generator all empower non-technical teams to make site changes without coding.
Shopify also doubled-down on AI integration. Sidekick can now reason through questions, execute commands (“create a 10% off discount for first-time buyers”), and even voice-chat or screen-share to guide merchants.
Beyond themes, Summer ’25 packs improvements for omnichannel and global selling. Shopify POS version 10 adds custom branded receipt screens, the ability to do mixed cart checkout (buy some items in-store, ship others), and store credit refunds – a “long awaited update” that keeps revenue in-store by refunding to a gift card instead of cash
Shopify Markets evolved into a true multi-entity, multi-market toolkit. Merchants (on Shopify Plus) can now sell under multiple business entities with different currencies from one store, use B2B and B2C pricing in one backend, and collect duties at checkout on all plans.
Shipping got smarter with flat-rate split shipping options (to prevent multi-location orders from double-charging shipping) and new carrier integrations. And notably, Apple Pay was moved into the regular checkout flow, so buyers can use it without skipping the upsell and discount code steps – a subtle change expected to lift conversion rates.
Also Read: Why Smart Retailers Are Simplifying the Homepage
Let’s evaluate how much these 2025 improvements actually solve Shopify’s long-standing pain points – and where issues might persist:
Shopify clearly made performance a priority in Winter ’25 and Summer ’25. The core online store is snappier, especially at critical points like cart and checkout. Even Shopify’s back-end got a boost. The admin now loads 30% faster in Summer ’25, and POS search can handle typos for quicker product lookup.
However, not all performance challenges vanish. Shopify stores can still suffer from theme bloat or excessive third-party scripts. The platform improvements help the baseline (e.g. Shopify’s own scripts and infrastructure), but if a merchant installs many apps that inject code, those can still slow down pages.
Shopify did try to mitigate this by releasing a new App Bridge that loads embedded apps faster, and by allowing more app code to run locally or deferred.
Still, ultimate site speed depends on how lean the theme and integrations are.
LinearCommerce’s LinearCore holds a natural edge here. As a dedicated stack, it’s engineered for performance without the multi-tenant overhead.
There’s no app store full of disparate scripts – most functionality is built-in or tightly integrated. That means a LinearCommerce site can be optimized end-to-end (from back-end processing to front-end delivery), often achieving better Core Web Vitals than a heavily app-laden Shopify store.
Shopify’s gap has shrunk with these editions (especially for stores that stick close to native features), but LinearCore’s architecture can still yield a faster, more consistent performance – important for DTC brands where every millisecond of load time matters.
Also Read: How to Handle SKUs with No Historical Data (e.g., New Drops, Collabs)
Shopify’s historically rigid design framework (Liquid themes with fixed section structures and a locked-down checkout) has opened up considerably in 2025.
The Horizon theme framework is a game-changer for customization on Shopify. Merchants can now nest sections within sections, mix and match blocks, and essentially “make your own layouts” on the fly.
For example, you could drop a product carousel inside a lookbook section or add rich content blocks to a product page – things that used to require custom theme code or hacks.
One agency observed that Horizon “supports the newest features” with “native support for nested blocks, conditional settings, and layout copy-paste”, reducing the need for developers in daily content updates.
On top of that, AI-generated blocks can instantly create new section designs from a text prompt, which removes bottlenecks in content and frontend execution for marketing teams.
Non-technical staff can now do in minutes what used to require a theme developer – a big win for agility.
But with great power comes caution. Developers warn that giving merchants so much no-code flexibility “often comes at the expense of UX and brand consistency.”
As one Shopify expert noted, “Could Horizon be too flexible for a merchant’s own good?” Without a careful design system, an enthusiastic team might make a mess of the site’s look and feel.
Additionally, Horizon’s advances mostly benefit the storefront. The checkout is still a standardized flow across Shopify stores.
Yes, Shopify now allows cosmetic tweaks (e.g. branding the checkout pages, or styling line items a bit) and Checkout UI Extensions for adding certain elements.
Shopify Plus merchants (or those using Functions) can insert custom logic in checkout, and Winter ’25 even extended those customizations to draft orders (a relief for teams who manually handled draft checkout quirks before).
Still, you cannot fully reinvent the checkout UX on Shopify – you work within Shopify’s framework.
By contrast, LinearCommerce’s LinearExperience module offers unbounded front-end freedom. LinearExperience is typically a headless or custom front-end solution, meaning brands can design every page – including checkout – exactly as they envision, with no template constraints.
Want a completely bespoke one-page checkout or a unique multi-step funnel? LinearExperience allows it. On Shopify you’d be fighting the platform to do the same.
From a developer’s standpoint, Shopify in 2025 is much friendlier than it was a few years back.
Winter ’25 and Summer ’25 introduced a “next-gen” developer platform with features like local development servers (MCP), better logging and monitoring for custom Functions, and declarative data definitions. Shopify also expanded its Functions capability, continuing to replace the old Script Editor so developers can write custom backend logic for discounts, shipping, and more.
The idea is to let developers and AI handle the heavy lifting while merchants describe what they want. A merchant might say to Sidekick, “set up tiered volume discounts for VIP customers,” and Shopify uses Functions or APIs to make it happen.
But there are still limits that developer-centric teams notice.
Shopify’s theme system lacks native GitHub integration. CI/CD pipeline support is still absent. Developers often build their own tooling for version control and deployment. Hydrogen, Shopify’s React-based headless framework, was notably absent from Summer ’25 announcements, leading some to question whether Shopify is prioritizing the monolithic Liquid-Horizon path over fully headless flexibility.
You are still working inside Shopify’s sandbox. If the platform doesn’t expose something, or if the API lacks depth, you either build a workaround or wait for a roadmap update.
By contrast, LinearCommerce’s LinearCore and LinearExperience combination offers an open playground. You can access the codebase directly. You can use any tech stack, integrate without proxy limits, and deploy using your preferred devops pipelines.
| Shopify (2025) | LinearCommerce | |
| Git-based theme deployment | Not native | Fully supported |
| CI/CD integration | Manual workaround | Standard practice |
| Local dev with hot reload | New MCP | Already core |
| Full DB access | No | Yes |
| Custom workflows | Limited by API | Fully flexible |
Also Read: How to Practically Implement Microservices in Retail
SEO has always been a complicated area for Shopify. It handles the basics well, but its rigid URL structure, limited blog features, and opinionated routing have frustrated advanced teams.
The 2025 Editions bring small but welcome improvements. Product taxonomy is more flexible now. You can auto-create smart collections based on attributes or metafields. This helps merchants target long-tail keywords without third-party tools.
Search is more semantic. Shopify’s internal site search now understands natural queries better. Variants can be grouped in search results, which helps reduce clutter and avoids duplicate-ish content.
However, the native blog remains basic. There were no major upgrades in 2025. Structured content can now be added via metaobjects, and Horizon helps by letting you insert custom sections anywhere. But Shopify still lacks a full CMS for editorial workflows.
International SEO is a bright spot. Shopify Markets now supports multi-entity domains, local currency pricing, and correct hreflang handling. You can assign different storefronts by market and localize URLs cleanly.
But merchants still run into Market bugs. For instance, a “Buy Again” button might route a user to the wrong market. This creates duplicate content issues that can hurt SEO. Also, Shopify still doesn’t allow full control over URL paths. You can tweak robots.txt slightly now, but cannot change /products/ or deeply nest content types.
LinearCommerce allows full control. Developers can create any URL structure, customize metadata and schema sitewide, and even programmatically generate tags and redirects. Content marketers can build landing pages without working around platform limitations.
If your SEO strategy involves content depth, technical precision, or custom schema, Shopify remains constrained.
Also Read: Why Is My Conversion Rate Dropping Despite Steady Traffic?
Shopify has reduced reliance on apps in key areas.
Native bundling, returns to store credit, and cookie consent are now built-in. Customers can view loyalty and subscription data inside their account area, which cuts down on frontend integration headaches. Shopify Campaigns allows pay-per-conversion marketing inside the admin panel, possibly replacing upfront ad spend.
But the a la carte model still dominates.
Most advanced features still require Shopify Plus or paid apps. If you want advanced filtering, that’s an app. If you want more than 100 variant options, that’s an app. If you want proper A/B testing, also an app. Many Shopify merchants run 10 or more third-party apps.
On Plus plans, many core enterprise features unlock, but they come with a $2,000/month price tag. On lower tiers, brands often stitch together functionality using apps with their own fees, maintenance burdens, and compatibility issues.
LinearCommerce takes a different approach. Core features that Shopify splits into apps—returns, loyalty, CMS, analytics, forms—are part of one homogenous stack.
There is no gating of features based on plan. You can run a multi-store, multi-role architecture without having to upgrade tiers. And because there’s no app ecosystem dictating how you extend the system, you’re not exposed to vendor instability or breaking changes.
Shopify’s SaaS model is appealing for teams that don’t want to maintain infrastructure. That benefit is real. But LinearCommerce allows you to trade operational complexity for ownership and long-term cost control. For high-GMV brands, the economics can shift in favor of LinearCommerce quickly.
Shopify’s Winter ’25 and Summer ’25 updates represent significant progress. For the average merchant, the platform is now faster, more flexible, and more natively capable than ever.
But that evolution doesn’t erase Shopify’s SaaS fundamentals. You are still extending a platform that serves millions of merchants, which means trade-offs in flexibility, ownership, and integration depth.
LinearCommerce is not for everyone. It demands more technical involvement and more up-front planning. But it was never designed for everyone. It was designed for brands that need more, especially those who optimize every micro-moment of the purchase experience.
| Shopify 2025 | LinearCommerce | |
| Performance | Improved baseline, still app-sensitive | Optimized full stack |
| Design freedom | Horizon helps, but checkout is limited | Full freedom, end-to-end |
| Dev experience | More tools, still gated | Total access, no workarounds |
| SEO control | Improved metadata and taxonomy | Full technical SEO control |
| Cost at scale | Predictable SaaS plus add-ons | Higher initial, lower long-term TCO |
| Ecosystem dependency | Reduced, still app-heavy | Self-contained stack |
For startups or teams with limited engineering capacity, Shopify remains a compelling way to get to market fast.
But for brands scaling into complexity, with deep requirements around speed, UX, checkout logic, content, or data flows, LinearCommerce offers something Shopify cannot.
We offer control.
Mayank Patel
May 28, 20255 min read
